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Notably for highly engaging verticals light online slots, if players are receiving a smaller-than-expected RTP (return to player), or bonuses have been restricted, they could again transition to an illegal offering where there are no such restrictions.
As has been flagged in previous reports, Regulus highlighted that the top 1% of active customers accounts for almost 50% of black market revenue across Europe. This follows a similar trend across licensed gambling as the report highlights “online gambling is a consumer discretionary expenditure item. This means a large proportion of expenditure is concentrated into a relatively small number of players.”
In its market-specific breakdown, the report noted a “rapid reduction in channelling” in the UK, following the increased use of affordability checks.
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In fact, behind those brands, a whole new sector is taking shape. Data and streaming suppliers, specialist market makers and technology companies are quickly invading the space.
The investment banking and capital markets firm Jefferies said in a September report that sports had become prediction markets’ “most important liquidity driver”, with combo and parlay-style contracts accounting for an increasing share of activity. But the analysts cautioned that prediction markets are scale businesses with relatively low revenue yields, leaving their economics dependent on sustained liquidity, engagement and trading activity.
James Monk, founder of sports data and streaming provider Catalist Sports, has witnessed that dependence directly. Catalist supplies ITF tennis data to Kalshi and Polymarket and has an exclusive US sports-streaming agreement with Kalshi.
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In January, Acting Gambling Authority CEO Moruntshi Kemorwale said reported problem gambling had declined from 5% in 2020 to 3.4% in 2025. It was a change he attributed in part to the regulator’s National Responsible Gambling Programme and nationwide education and outreach.
He said the Authority’s role was to protect the public while ensuring gambling benefited Botswana. Kemorwale added that it was working with police against illegal promoters who make misleading promises of wealth, and that its approach to licensed operators emphasised guidance and compliance alongside enforcement.
The dispute over the legal gambling age comes as the Gambling Authority steps up its warnings about illegal online betting.
