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This requirement raised concerns among operators worried that the barriers to entry could have become more restrictive, But at a meeting on the policies last year the regulator assured licensees it was not enforcing a specific strict rule on this.

Speaking to iGB at the time, Bjorn Fuchs, chairman of VNLOK Fuchs noted “there was a sigh of relief going through the room when it was presented”.

Rather than a crackdown across the board, what emerged was a more regulated renewal framework.

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Enda Kendrick, chief executive of service provider Veltium, similarly says the largest UK and European sharp-betting groups have moved rapidly into US prediction markets. He believes there are also more than 100 smaller operations, ranging from individual traders to teams of around 10, interested in entering the regulated US market.

Yet the presence of professional counterparties complicates the customer-facing idea that prediction markets merely allow users to trade opinions with one another. As Kendrick puts it, two ordinary customers are not going to place $10 million or $20 million behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Markets at that scale require institutions.

For Marantelli, the exchange format could also cause some customers to lose money faster than they would with a conventional sportsbook. The ability to enter and exit positions creates a perception of flexibility, but that optionality can encourage users to commit more of their bankroll.

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Participants outlined several improvements. Of note were clear and simple financial disclosures, including real-time loss displays and transparent explanations of promotional wagering conditions.

The participants suggested timely and relevant interruptions as well as enhanced onboarding processes and in-game assistance, which could include free-play modes, easy access to concise game rules and AI-driven help to clarify complex terms.

For land-based venues, unobtrusive and empathetic staff checks to identify signs of distress without creating a sense of surveillance was suggested.