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The lesson is simple: gambling still attracts capital when the money is visible. It is less attractive when the payoff lies far in the distance.
The biggest new uncertainty in US sports betting is prediction markets. The American Gaming Association estimates that Americans will legally wager $29.5 billion in betting handle through US regulated commercial sportsbooks during the 2026 NFL season, broadly unchanged from the $29.4 billion handle recorded in 2025. These figures refer to the amount wagered, not sportsbook revenue.
Robinson calls prediction markets “the main event”. His argument is not simply that US customers are moving from sportsbooks to prediction markets. The more important point is that sportsbooks no longer have the relatively protected market that was once assumed.
About Wild Traces
Friday’s opening was deliberately capped at 6,000 spectators while construction continues. Only the first two levels of the new five-story grandstand are currently open, with the remaining sections scheduled for completion ahead of next year’s meet.
The redevelopment was financed by a $455 million loan from New York State, approved in 2023. State officials have projected the project will generate $155 million in annual economic activity once fully operational, along with around $10 million annually in state and local tax revenue.
The redesigned complex features four distinct racing surfaces: a 1½-mile dirt track, two turf courses, and a one-mile Tapeta synthetic track.
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There are also strategic questions around dependence on AI providers.
Cubeia is currently heavily reliant on Claude, and Grenstad questions what could happen if AI providers raise prices or if quality changes. For now, however, Grenstad sees the uncertainty as something Cubeia can learn to manage.
“We’re confident that the question marks will be solved as we work through them. We’ll see the problems, learn how to manage them, and adapt.”
