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That window Scheinthal had hoped for seems to be moving further away. Caesars’ proxy filing showed that even during negotiations in the spring, Fertitta refused to go above its $31-per-share offer “due to higher financing costs and increased macroeconomic risks”. From the end of 2025 to late April of this year, higher borrowing costs had resulted in “approximately $40 million per year in additional costs from when the process started”, the filing said.
Diller, for his part, lodged an all-cash, $48.30-per-share offer for MGM days after the Caesars deal broke. People Inc. finished Q2 with $1.1 billion in cash, but between the 74% of shares it would acquire, as well as MGM’s long-term debt of over $6 billion, some level of financing would be required. MGM appointed an independent committee to review the bid but has said nothing since.
Moving forward, history suggests that this month’s rate hike might not be the last. During hawkish periods, the FOMC has paused after an initial rate hike just once since the 1990s, per the Wall Street Journal. Over that period, the US Central Bank has typically lifted rates six to seven times throughout an upward cycle. Warsh has signalled optimism in the economy’s stability moving forward.
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In January, Polymarket and Dow Jones announced an agreement that paved the way for event contract data to appear on various Dow Jones sites, including The Wall Street Journal. Dow Jones also owns Barron’s, Investor’s Business Daily and MarketWatch, among other media properties.
Polymarket also has marketing deals with Major League Baseball (MLB), Major League Soccer (MLS), the NHL and UFC.
While the Polymarket/Yahoo Finance situation is one of the earliest examples of a severed relationship between a prediction market operator and a media entity, that doesn’t mean those “divorces” will permeate the two industries.
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For Birkin, the share-price decline has gone well beyond the deterioration in earnings expectations. Fantini sees the industry’s great growth phase as largely behind it. Beynon’s focus is on what the market can see today: earnings and cash flow, rather than promises of future sportsbook growth. And for Robinson, the weakness is no longer simply a matter of valuation. It is increasingly showing up in the fundamentals themselves.
Nobody is predicting the end of gambling. The market is still growing. Good operators are still making money. New products are emerging.
But what has changed is what shareholders want those companies to prove – and the price they are willing to pay for that proof.