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Kendrick sees a warning in the history of betting exchanges. In their early growth phase, there was sufficient retail liquidity for numerous market makers to profit. As that retail pool weakened, the sharper firms increasingly found themselves trading against one another.

His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.

The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.

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For the right audience, likely professional traders and sophisticated retail investors, the CME futures on FutureSports indexes could amount to “Goldilocks” offerings because the derivatives aren’t standard sports bets nor are they carbon copies of the event contracts traded on prediction markets.

The MLB and NHL futures contracts could be deployed by big-money bettors as hedges on various team exposures over the course of those leagues’ seasons.

As for the regulatory outlooks for the ETFs, the SEC hasn’t publicly commented on the NHL funds’ fates and it’s too early to tell what will come of the MLB filings, but there are hundreds of futures-based ETFs on the market today.

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Each settlement involved cooperation with Kalshi’s investigation. 

What distinguishes Santos’ penalty is the exchange’s allegation that he actively issued false or misleading statements to alter prices and profited materially, violating additional rules such as failure to cooperate and manipulative conduct. 

These breaches escalated his sanction to a permanent ban and a significantly larger fine compared to others involved.