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As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
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About Banana Town
While the new figures underline the sheer scale of Britain’s regulated market, leading operator Entain is pressing the government for tougher action against black-market platforms.
Entain highlighted that 11 of 20 Premier League clubs currently hold sponsorship or advertising arrangements with gambling operators lacking a Gambling Commission license—up from government estimates of eight clubs during the 2025/26 season.
“The government made clear in February that it would bring in a ban and it should do so immediately,” said Entain CEO Stella David, noting that clubs entering new agreements had already been warned. “Inconvenience is not an excuse for inaction.”