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Online gambling more broadly remains illegal, with no sign of legalisation in either the short or long term. If anything, the government appears to be moving further away from the activity, and is actively considering website blocking to prevent illegal gambling in the country.

But through its love of pachinko, social gaming in Japan offers a strikingly different story.

Across some 8,000 pachinko parlours in Japan, machines filled with metallic balls fill expansive spaces, similar to slot machines on a casino floor. Winning balls are tallied and exchanged for non-cash prizes at the parlour, which can then be taken to nearby third-party exchange outlets for cash.

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It’s widely believed that all-or-nothing exchanges are carving out significant niches in states, such as California and Texas, where sports betting is prohibited, but there’s also emerging consensus that the prediction market threat to sportsbooks is easing.

A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.

That creates a stark contrast during peak football season when traditional sportsbooks spend heavily on promotions. Offers ranging from $350 to $365 from major operators make the $25 to $50 promotional matches typically seen on prediction markets appear modest by comparison.